I was asked some interesting questions recently by CEO & CIO, a Chinese business magazine. The questions ranged from how Chinese Internet giants like Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent differ from other customers and what leading technologies big Internet companies have created to questions about emerging technologies such as software-defined storage (SDS) and software-defined datacenters (SDDC) and changes in the ecosystem of datacenter hardware, software and service providers. These were great questions. Sometimes you need the press or someone outside the industry to ask a question that makes you step back and think about what’s going on.
I thought you might interested, so this blog, the first of a 3-part series covering the interview, shares details of the first two questions.
CEO & CIO: In recent years, Internet companies have built ultra large-scale datacenters. Compared with traditional enterprises, they also take the lead in developing datacenter technology. From an industry perspective, what are the three leading technologies of ultra large-scale Internet data centers in your opinion? Please describe them.
There are so many innovations and important contributions to the industry from these hyperscale datacenters in hardware, software and mechanical engineering. To choose three is difficult. While I would prefer to choose hardware innovations as their big ones, I would suggest the following as they have changed our world and our industry and are changing our hardware and businesses:
Autonomous behavior and orchestration
An architect at Microsoft once told me, “If we had to hire admins for our datacenter in a normal enterprise way, we would hire all the IT admins in the world, and still not have enough.” There are now around 1 million servers in Microsoft datacenters. Hyperscale datacenters have had to develop autonomous, self-managing, sometimes self-deploying datacenter infrastructure simply to expand. They are pioneering datacenter technology for scale – innovating, learning by trial and error, and evolving their practices to drive more work/$. Their practices are specialized but beginning to be emulated by the broader IT industry. OpenStack is the best example of how that specialized knowledge and capability is being packaged and deployed broadly in the industry. At LSI, we’re working with both hyperscale and orchestration solutions to make better autonomous infrastructure.
High availability at datacenter level vs. machine level
As systems get bigger they have more components, more modes of failure and they get more complex and expensive to maintain reliability. As storage is used more, and more aggressively, drives tend to fail. They are simply being used more. And yet there is continued pressure to reduce costs and complexity. By the time hyperscale datacenters had evolved to massive scale – 100’s of thousands of servers in multiple datacenters – they had created solutions for absolute reliability, even as individual systems got less expensive, less complex and much less reliable. This is what has enabled the very low cost structures of the cloud, and made it a reliable resource.
These solutions are well timed too, as more enterprise organizations need to maintain on-premises data across multiple datacenters with absolute reliability. The traditional view that a single server requires 99.999% reliability is giving way to a more pragmatic view of maintaining high reliability at the macro level – across the entire datacenter. This approach accepts the failure of individual systems and components even as it maintains data center level reliability. Of course – there are currently operational issues with this approach. LSI has been working with hyperscale datacenters and OEMs to engineer improved operational efficiency and resilience, and minimized impact of individual component failure, while still relying on the datacenter high-availability (HA) layer for reliability.
It’s such an overused term. It’s difficult to believe the term barely existed a few years ago. The gift of Hadoop® to the industry – an open source attempt to copy Google® MapReduce and Google File System – has truly changed our world unbelievably quickly. Today, Hadoop and the other big data applications enable search, analytics, advertising, peta-scale reliable file systems, genomics research and more – even services like Apple® Siri run on Hadoop. Big data has changed the concept of analytics from statistical sampling to analysis of all data. And it has already enabled breakthroughs and changes in research, where relationships and patterns are looked for empirically, rather than based on theories.
Overall, I think big data has been one of the most transformational technologies this century. Big data has changed the focus from compute to storage as the primary enabler in the datacenter. Our embedded hard disk controllers, SAS (Serial Attached SCSI) host bus adaptors and RAID controllers have been at the heart of this evolution. The next evolutionary step in big data is the broad adoption of graph analysis, which integrates the relationship of data, not just the data itself.
CEO & CIO: Due to cloud computing, mobile connectivity and big data, the traditional IT ecosystem or industrial chain is changing. What are the three most important changes in LSI’s current cooperation with the ecosystem chain? How does LSI see the changes in the various links of the traditional ecosystem chain? What new links are worth attention? Please give some examples.
Cloud computing and the explosion of data driven by mobile devices and media has and continues to change our industry and ecosystem contributors dramatically. It’s true the enterprise market (customers, OEMs, technology, applications and use cases) has been pretty stable for 10-20 years, but as cloud computing has become a significant portion of the server market, it has increasingly affected ecosystem suppliers like LSI.
Timing: It’s no longer enough to follow Intel’s ticktock product roadmap. Development cycles for datacenter solutions used to be 3 to 5 years. But these cycles are becoming shorter. Now, demand for solutions is closer to 6 months – forcing hardware vendors to plan and execute to far tighter development cycles. Hyperscale datacenters also need to be able to expand resources very quickly, as customer demand dictates. As a result they incorporate new architectures, solutions and specifications out of cycle with the traditional Intel roadmap changes. This has also disrupted the ecosystem.
End customers: Hyperscale datacenters now have purchasing power in the ecosystem, with single purchase orders sometimes amounting to 5% of the server market. While OEMs still are incredibly important, they are not driving large-scale deployments or innovating and evolving nearly as fast. The result is more hyperscale design-win opportunities for component or sub-system vendors if they offer something unique or a real solution to an important problem. This also may shift profit pools away from OEMs to strong, nimble technology solution innovators. It also has the potential to reduce overall profit pools for the whole ecosystem, which is a potential threat to innovation speed and re-investment.
New players: Traditionally, a few OEMs and ISVs globally have owned most of the datacenter market. However, the supply chain of the hyperscale cloud companies has changed that. Leading datacenters have architected, specified or even built (in Google’s case) their own infrastructure, though many large cloud datacenters have been equipped with hyperscale-specific systems from Dell and HP. But more and more systems built exactly to datacenter specifications are coming from suppliers like Quanta. Newer network suppliers like Arista have increased market share. Some new hyperscale solution vendors have emerged, like Nebula. And software has shifted to open source, sometimes supported for-pay by companies copying the Redhat® Linux model – companies like Cloudera, Mirantis or United Stack. Personally, I am still waiting for the first 3rd-party hardware service emulating a Linux support and service company to appear.
Open initiatives: Yes, we’ve seen Hadoop and its derivatives deployed everywhere now – even in traditional industries like oil and gas, pharmacology, genomics, etc. And we’ve seen the emergence of open-source alternatives to traditional databases being deployed, like Casandra. But now we’re seeing new initiatives like Open Compute and OpenStack. Sure these are helpful to hyperscale datacenters, but they are also enabling smaller companies and universities to deploy hyperscale-like infrastructure and get the same kind of automated control, efficiency and cost structures that hyperscale datacenters enjoy. (Of course they don’t get fully there on any front, but it’s a lot closer). This trend has the potential to hurt OEM and ISV business models and markets and establish new entrants – even as we see Quanta, TYAN, Foxconn, Wistron and others tentatively entering the broader market through these open initiatives.
New architectures and new algorithms: There is a clear movement toward pooled resources (or rack scale architecture, or disaggregated servers). Developing pooled resource solutions has become a partnership between core IP providers like Intel and LSI with the largest hyperscale datacenter architects. Traditionally new architectures were driven by OEMs, but that is not so true anymore. We are seeing new technologies emerge to enable these rack-scale architectures (RSA) – technologies like silicon photonics, pooled storage, software-defined networks (SDN), and we will soon see pooled main memory and new nonvolatile main memories in the rack.
We are also seeing the first tries at new processor architectures about to enter the datacenter: ARM 64 for cool/cold storage and web tier and OpenPower P8 for high power processing – multithreaded, multi-issue, pooled memory processing monsters. This is exciting to watch. There is also an emerging interest in application acceleration: general-purposing computing on graphics processing units (GPGPUs), regular expression processors (regex) live stream analytics, etc. We are also seeing the first generation of graph analysis deployed at massive scale in real time.
Innovation: The pace of innovation appears to be accelerating, although maybe I’m just getting older. But the easy gains are done. On one hand, datacenters need exponentially more compute and storage, and they need to operate 10x to 1000x more quickly. On the other, memory, processor cores, disks and flash technologies are getting no faster. The only way to fill that gap is through innovation. So it’s no surprise there are lots of interesting things happening at OEMs and ISVs, chip and solution companies, as well as open source community and startups. This is what makes it such an interesting time and industry.
Consumption shifts: We are seeing a decline in laptop and personal computer shipments, a drop that naturally is reducing storage demand in those markets. Laptops are also seeing a shift to SSD from HDD. This has been good for LSI, as our footprint in laptop HDDs had been small, but our presence in laptop SSDs is very strong. Smart phones and tablets are driving more cloud content, traffic and reliance on cloud storage. We have seen a dramatic increase in large HDDs for cloud storage, a trend that seems to be picking up speed, and we believe the cloud HDD market will be very healthy and will see the emergence of new, cloud-specific HDDs that are radically different and specifically designed for cool and cold storage.
There is also an explosion of SSD and PCIe flash cards in cloud computing for databases, caches, low-latency access and virtual machine (VM) enablement. Many applications that we take for granted would not be possible without these extreme low-latency, high-capacity flash products. But very few companies can make a viable storage system from flash at an acceptable cost, opening up an opportunity for many startups to experiment with different solutions.
Summary: So I believe the biggest hyperscale innovations are autonomous behavior and orchestration, HA at the datacenter level vs. machine level, and big data. These are radically changing the whole industry. And what are those changes for our industry and ecosystem? You name it: timing, end customers, new players, open initiatives, new architectures and algorithms, innovation, and consumption patterns. All that’s staying the same are legacy products and solutions.
These were great questions. Sometimes you need the press or someone outside the industry to ask a question that makes you step back and think about what’s going on. Great questions.
Tags: Alibaba, Apple Siri, Arista, ARM 64, Baidu, big data, Casandra, CEO & CIO Magazine, China, cloud storage, Cloudera, cold storage, cool storage, datacenter, datacenter ecosystem, Dell, flash, Foxconn, Google File System, Google MapReduce, Hadoop, hard disk drive, HDD, high availability, HP, hyperscale datacenter, Intel, Internet, latency, Microsoft, Mirantis, Nebula, Open Compute, OpenPower P8, OpenStack, Quanta, rack scale, RAID, Redhat Linux, SAS, SDDC, SDN, SDS, Serial Attached SCSI, software-defined datacenter, software-defined networks, software-defined storage, solid state drive, SSD, Tencent, TYAN, United Stack, virtual machine, VM, Wistron
Last week at LSI’s annual Accelerating Innovation Summit (AIS) the company took the wraps off a vision that should lead its technical direction for the next few years.
In his keynote, LSI CEO Abhi Talwalkar shared a video of three situations as they might evolve in the future:
I’ll focus on just one of these to show how LSI expects the future to develop. In the bicycle accident scenario, a businessman falls to the ground while riding a bicycle in a foreign country. Security cameras that have been upgraded to understand what they see notify an emergency services agency which sends an ambulance to the scene. The paramedic performs a retinal scan on the victim, using it to retrieve his medical records, including his DNA sequence, from the web.
The businessman’s wearable body monitoring system also communicates with the paramedic’s instruments to share his vital signs. All of this information is used by cloud-based computers to determine a course of action which, in the video, requires an injection that has been custom-tuned to the victim’s current situation, his medical history, and his genetic makeup.
That’s a pretty tall order, and it will require several advances in the state of the art, but LSI is using this and other scenarios to work with its clients and translate this vision into the products of the future.
What are the key requirements to make this happen? Talwalkar told the audience that we need to create a society that is supported by preventive, predictive and assisted analytics to move in a direction where the general welfare is assisted by all that the Internet and advanced computing have to offer. Since data is growing at an exponential rate, he argued that this will require the instant retrieval of interlinked data objects at scale. Everything that is key to solving the task must be immediately available, and must be quickly analyzed to provide a solution to the problem at hand. The key will be the ability to process interlinked pieces of data that have not been previously structured to handle any particular situation.
To achieve this we will need larger-scale computing resources than are currently available, all closely interconnected, that all operate at very high speeds. LSI hopes to tap into these needs through its strengths in networking and communications chips for the communications, its HDD and server and storage connectivity array chips and boards for large-scale data, and its flash controller memory and PCIe SSD expertise for high performance.
LSI brought to AIS several of the customers and partners it is working with using to develop these technologies. Speakers from Intel, Microsoft, IBM, Toshiba, Ericsson and others showed how they are working with LSI’s various technologies to improve the performance of their own systems. On the exhibition floor booths from LSI and many of its clients demonstrated new technologies that performed everything from high-speed stock market analysis to fast flash management.
It’s pretty exciting to see a company that has a clear vision of its future and is committed to moving its entire ecosystem ahead to make that happen and help companies manage their business more effectively during what LSI calls the “Datacentric Era.” LSI has certainly put a lot of effort into creating a vision and determining where its talents can be brought to bear to improve our lives in the future.
Tags: Abhi Talkwalkar, AIS, chips, communications, connectivity, data, Datacentric Era, Ericsson, flash, flash memory, hard disk drive, HDD, IBM, Intel, large-scale data, Microsoft, Networking, server, Storage, Toshiba
Have you ever seen the old BBC TV show “Connections”? It’s a little old now, but I loved how it followed threads through time, and I marveled at the surprising historical depth of important “inventions.” I think we need to remember that as engineers and technologists. We get caught up in the short-term tactical delivery of technology. We don’t see the sometimes immense ripples in society from our work – even years later.
I got a flurry of emails yesterday, arranging an anniversary get-together in August at the Apple campus. Why? It’s the 20th anniversary of the Newton. Ok – so this has nothing to do with LSI really, but it does have a lot to do with our everyday lives. More than you think.
So you either know the Newton and think it was a failure (think Trudeau’s famous handwriting cartoon), or you don’t and you’re wondering what the *bleep* I’m talking about. Sometimes things that don’t seem very significant early on end up having profound consequences. And I admit, the Newton was a failure, too expensive and not quite good enough, and the world couldn’t even get the concept of a general-purpose computer in your hand.
But oh – you could smell the future and get a tantalizing hint of what it would be. Remember – we’re talking 1993 here.
First – why does Rob Ober care? It’s personal. While I didn’t remotely help create the Newton, I did help bring it to market, mature the technology, and set the stage for the future (well – it’s not the future any more – it’s now). I was at Apple wrapping up the creation of the PowerPC processor and architecture, and the first Power Macs. I have a great memory around that time of getting the first Power Mac booted. Someone had the great idea of running the beta 68K emulator (to run standard Mac stuff). That was great, it worked, and then someone else said – wait – I have an Apple II emulator for the 68K Mac. So we had the very first PowerPC Mac running 68K code as a Mac to emulate a 6502 as an Apple II … and we played for hours. I also have a very clear memory of that PowerPC Mac standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the Robotron game in the Valley Green 5 building break room. It was a state-of-the-art video game and looked like this.
Yea, that shows you it was a while ago. (But it was a good game.)
A guy named Shane Robison pulled me over (yea, the same HP CTO, now CEO of FusionIO) to come fix some things on the super-hush Newton program. In the end, I took over responsibility for the processors, custom chips, communication stacks and hardware, plastics and tooling, display, touch screen, power supply, wireless, NiMH and LiION batteries… A lot. We pushed the limits of state of the art on all those fronts. It was a really important wonderful/terrible part of my career. I learned an amazing amount.
(If you’re interested in viewing a Newton from today’s perspective, there is a fascinating review here: http://techland.time.com/2012/06/01/newton-reconsidered/)
Let me start with some boring effects. We were using the ARM processor because of its low power. But. It wasn’t perfect, and ARM itself was on the edge of insolvency. We invested a sizable chunk of money, and gave it guidance on how to transition from ARM 6 to 7 to 9. ARM is alive today because of that, and the ARM 9 is still in 100’s of millions of products. And we also worked with DEC to create the StrongARM processor family, which became XScale at Intel, then went to Marvel, and also bootstrapped Atom, and, and…
The Newton needed non-volatile storage. Disks were immense, expensive and power-hungry. 2-1/2” disk? Didn’t exist. 3-1/2” was small. The only remotely cost-effective technology was called NAND flash, which was fundamentally incompatible with program execution, and nightmarish for data storage/retrieval, and unbelievably expensive per bit. I think the early Newtons were 8 Mbytes? (that’s mega not giga…). The team figured out how to make that work. Yep – that was the first use of Toshiba NAND for program/data. (I’ve been playing with flash for storage since then.)
Then some more interesting things…
I wired the Apple campus with wireless LAN base stations (it would be 6 years until Wifi, and 802.11 wasn’t even dreamt up yet) and built the wireless LAN receivers into Newtons, gave them to the Apple execs and set up their mail to be forwarded. You couldn’t even do that on laptops. We could be anywhere in the campus and instantly receive and send emails. More – we could browse the (rudimentary) web. I also worked with RIM (yea – Research In Motion – Blackberry) and Metricom to use their wireless wide area net technology to give Newtons access to email and the Web anywhere in the Bay Area. Quite a few times I was driving to meetings, wasn’t sure where to go, so pulled over and looked up the meeting in my Newton calendar, then checked the address on my browser with MapQuest. 1995. Sound familiar?
We also spent time with FedEx pitching it on the idea of a Newton-based tablet to manage inventory (integrated bar code scanner), accept signatures on screen with tablet/pen (even the upside down thing to hand it to the customer), show route maps, and cellularly send all that info back and forth for live tracking. FedEx was stunned by the concept. Sound familiar? I still have the proposal book with industrial designs in my garage. Yes, another Silicon Valley garage. Here’s what it rolled out 10 years later… which is ultimately pretty similar to our proposal.
And don’t forget Object Programming. (You remember when OOPS was a high-tech term?) I’m not really a software guy – just not my thing – but I loved programming on the Newton. In 10 minutes you could actually bang out a useful, great-looking program. Personally, I think the world would have been way better off if those object libraries had been folded into the Java object library. Even so, I get a nostalgic feel when I do iOS programming.
I even built a one-off proto that had cellphone guts inside the plastic of the Newton. (OK – it was chunky, but the smallest phones at the time were HUGE). I could make phone calls from the contacts or calendar or emails, send and receive SMS messages, and rudimentary MMS messages before there was such a thing – used just like a very overweight iPhone (OK – more like the big Samsung galaxy phones). I could even, in a pinch, do data over the GSM network – email, web, etc. It was around that time Nokia came calling and asked about our UI, our OS, our ability to used data over the GSM network… Those talks fell apart, but it was serious enough I made trips to Nokia’s mothership in Helsinki and Tampere a few times. (That’s north even for a Canadian boy…)
And then years later I got a phone call from one of the key people at Apple – Mike Culbert (who, sadly, recently passed away) – to ask about cellular/baseband chipsets and solutions. He knew I knew the technology. I introduced him to my friends at Infineon (now Intel Mobile) for a discussion on a mystery project… Those parts ended up in the iPhone. A lot of the same people and technology, just way more advanced…
iPad? Sure. A lot of the same people were involved in a Newton that never saw the light of day. The BIC. Here it is with the iPad. Again – 15 years apart.
And you remember the $100 laptop (OLPC?). As a founding board member, I brought an eMate kids Newton laptop to show the team early on. And of course the debate on disk vs. flash followed the same path as it had in Newton. Here they are together, separated by more than 10 years. And then of course, OLPC has direct genetic parentage of netbooks, which then lead to Ultrabooks… (Did you know at one point Apple was considering joining OLPC and offering Darwin/OSX as the OS? Didn’t last long.)
And then there are the people. Off the top of my head there were founders or key movers of Palm, Xbox, Kindle, Hotmail, Yahoo, Netscape, Android, WebTV (think most set-top boxes), Danger phone (you remember the sidekick?), Evernote, Mercedes research and a bunch of others. And some friends who became well-known VCs. And I still have a lot of super-talented friends from that time, many of whom are still at Apple.
Sometimes things that don’t seem very significant have profound follow-on consequences. I think we need to remember that as engineers and technologists. We don’t see the sometimes immense ripples in society from our work – even years later. Today we’re planting the seeds for all those great things in the future. I admit, the Newton was a failure, but oh – you could smell the future and get a tantalizing hint of what it would be. Remember – we’re talking 1993 here.
Tags: 802.11, Android, Apple, Apple II, ARM, BIC, Blackberry, Darwin, DEC, eMate, Evernote, FedEx, FusionIO, Hotmail, HP, Intel, iPad, iPhone, Kindle, Marvel, Mercedes, Metricom, Mike Culbert, MMS, Netscape, Newton, Nokia, object programming, OLPC, Palm, Power Mac, PowerPC, Research in Motion, Robotron, Shane Robison, SMS, StrongARM, Toshiba, Ultrabook, Web TV, Wifi, Xbox, XScale, Yahoo